Shares of Samsung Electronics surged 6.5% to €3,770 on August 11 after reports that the company's next-generation AI memory chips reached the manufacturing sweet spot months ahead of plan, raising a pointed question: is this the turning point that closes the gap with dominant rival SK Hynix?
From 60% to 80% in Six Months — That's Real Money
Samsung's HBM4 yield climbed to 80% from below 60% when mass production began in February.
A yield of 80% or higher is considered a "golden yield" because manufacturing becomes predictable, profitable, and stable.
Samsung initially set an 80% yield target for the end of 2026, but process improvements outpaced expectations. In simple terms, four more out of every ten chips now work — that directly lowers the cost per usable chip and boosts margins on every wafer Samsung runs.
Revenue Could Triple in a Single Quarter
The yield breakthrough has become the basis for Samsung's confidence in more than tripling HBM4 revenue in Q3 from the previous quarter.
Samsung has raised Q3 HBM4 revenue targets threefold, expanding HBM4's share to more than 60% of its total HBM product mix in the second half of 2026.
Seoul Economic Daily reported Samsung could earn at least $30 billion in HBM profit in 2027 if it sustains current performance.
The SK Hynix Duopoly Is Getting Tighter
Samsung is projected to take the No. 1 spot with 41% HBM market share next year, versus SK Hynix's 39% — a dramatic reversal from early 2026 when Counterpoint Research forecast SK Hynix at 54% and Samsung at just 28%.
SK Hynix's own HBM4 yield has also reportedly touched 80%, so the race is far from settled. Production capacity for all three HBM suppliers in 2027 is already fully booked amid a global AI-driven shortage.
The Old Weakness That Needed Fixing
Samsung had faced problems with earlier-generation chips that reportedly overheated and failed Nvidia quality tests.
Samsung cracked one of its toughest technical hurdles — balancing speed, power efficiency, and heat control in its chip-bonding process.
TrendForce expects HBM suppliers to retain pricing power through 2027 as supply remains constrained, meaning Samsung can sell every good chip it makes at premium prices — but only if qualification with Nvidia's next platform holds.