Gary Black, managing partner of The Future Fund, cautioned Tesla bulls. He warned against assuming the company's uncontested dominance in the robotaxi market. Black stated this assumption mirrors the "delusional thinking" that underestimated Chinese electric vehicle rivals. These rivals rose significantly between 2020 and 2025.
Black cited significant progress by competitors. He named Waymo, Baidu, and Pony.ai. These companies will compete with Tesla in unsupervised autonomy. He noted Chinese manufacturers previously caught up to Tesla's manufacturing scale and cost. BYD surpassed Tesla in global battery-electric vehicle sales in 2025.
This warning extends Black's previous critiques. He has argued autonomy could become commoditized. This commoditization would pressure Tesla's high valuation. Competition will challenge the premium multiples assigned to Tesla's projected robotaxi business.