Shares of Oracle slid 6.1% to ARS 64,875 as investors continue punishing the stock for a capital spending spree that has reshaped the company's financial profile almost overnight. ORCL on the New York Stock Exchange has fallen sharply from a 52-week high near $345 to roughly $125–130, as the market digests what may be the most aggressive — and most leveraged — infrastructure bet in enterprise tech history.
$100 Billion in Debt and Counting, With No Slowdown in Sight
Oracle already holds over $100 billion in debt and plans to raise an additional $45 billion to $50 billion in calendar year 2026 through debt and equity.
On top of that, Oracle said it would raise another $40 billion in fiscal 2027 through debt and equity financing, layered on top of the $43 billion in debt it raised in the fiscal year just ended. The critical difference with rivals: "Unlike the so-called hyperscalers..., Oracle was not sitting on a pile of cash or generating huge amounts of cash flow heading into this spending cycle." That forces Oracle to borrow where Amazon, Microsoft, and Google spend from profits.
Free Cash Flow Has Cratered From Near-Zero to Negative $24 Billion
Oracle's higher-than-expected capital spending for fiscal 2026 deepened its free cash flow deficit to $23.7 billion, a staggering rise from a deficit of just $394 million in fiscal 2025. Free cash flow — the money left after a company pays its bills and invests — going this deeply negative means Oracle cannot fund dividends, buybacks, or debt repayments from operations. Analysts predict free cash flow will stay negative until 2030.
Capex Is Doubling Again, and the Bill Goes to Bondholders
Spending is accelerating dramatically, rising from $21.2 billion in fiscal 2025 to $55.7 billion in fiscal 2026, and a planned $70 billion in fiscal 2027.
Oracle forecasts fiscal 2027 capex could reach $95 billion, with up to $25 billion expected to be repaid by customers. That customer-repayment figure is crucial — if bookings slow, Oracle absorbs the full cost.
The Valuation Offers No Cushion
Oracle trades at 24.56 times estimated forward earnings, compared with Microsoft's 20.47 and Amazon's 25.19. Oracle is priced nearly as richly as Amazon, but without the cash-generation engine. Concerns about Oracle's increasing debt burden have already driven up its default insurance costs and weakened its bonds in secondary trading.
S&P and Moody's maintain negative outlooks as free cash flow remains pressured. Until Oracle proves these data centers translate into durable revenue — not just contracted promises — the stock is priced for a payoff investors aren't yet sure will arrive.