Shares of Metlen Energy & Metals climbed +7.15% over the past week to €44.36, driven by a cluster of shareholder-friendly moves and a government-backed growth project — not a broad market wave. The run raises a pointed question: is the stock catching up to its fundamentals, or pricing in a future that still depends on flawless execution?
A €1 Dividend and €600 Million Buyback Put Cash Directly in Investors' Pockets
Shareholders approved a final dividend of €1.00 per share for 2025, paid on July 16. Days earlier, the board authorized a buyback program of up to €600 million — to be executed in tranches through Citi and Piraeus, with repurchased shares held in treasury or used for employee plans through June 2031. Against a market cap of roughly €6.2 billion , that buyback alone could retire nearly 10% of outstanding shares over time, mechanically lifting earnings per share even if profits stay flat. Combined with a ~2.4% trailing dividend yield, the capital return package is aggressive for an industrial company still investing heavily.
Greece's Gallium Approval Taps Into a Global Supply Chain Panic
Metlen received approval under Greece's Strategic Investments framework for an approximately €300 million project to develop gallium production capacity and expand nearby bauxite mines and an alumina refinery, with grants and tax incentives expected to total about €118 million. The timing is significant: China produces 99% of the world's primary gallium, and Beijing's export controls — escalated to a full ban on U.S. shipments in late 2024 — have made the metal a focal point of great-power competition.
Metlen aims for 50 tonnes of gallium annually by 2027 , and the project has been designated a strategic project under the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act, ensuring priority access to permits and financing. With nearly 40% of the investment subsidized, Metlen's risk is cushioned — but output is still years away.
Record Revenue Guidance Meets a Big EBITDA Gap
Metlen expects record turnover in 2026 with EBITDA recovering to €1.0–1.15 billion, up from €753 million in 2025.
Management has also reiterated a medium-term EBITDA target of €2 billion. That is a bold ambition from a company that missed its 2025 guidance due to project cost overruns. Analysts currently carry a €55 price target — still roughly 24% above today's price — but the next earnings report on August 6 will test whether the recovery trajectory is real or aspirational.