Eagle Eye Smashes Expectations and Lands an OEM Deal — But Can a £46.7M Company Really Double Its Size?

Shares shifted sharply higher as Eagle Eye Solutions surged 7.5% to 500p after the AIM-listed loyalty-tech firm disclosed a full-year trading update that blew past City forecasts on nearly every metric. The question for investors: is the recovery from last year's painful contract loss now fully priced in, or is the real growth chapter just beginning?

• Recurring Revenue Growth Crushed Estimates, Signaling the Business Has Turned a Corner. Annual recurring revenue — the predictable subscription income the company earns each year — grew 31% to £44.5 million, significantly exceeding market expectations.

Adjusted EBITDA (operating profit before accounting charges) hit £9.8 million with a 21% margin, and net cash stood at £16.1 million.

The market had been expecting revenue of just £45.4 million and EBITDA of only £7.0 million — meaning Eagle Eye delivered nearly 40% more profit than analysts forecast. That kind of beat forces upgrades.

• A Lost Contract No Longer Defines the Story. Overall group revenue dipped to £46.7 million due to the loss of the NRS contract, but underlying revenue excluding that deal grew 21% to £46.1 million , driven by new wins including easyJet and Subway . The group also renewed major clients Woolworths for five years and Auchan for two years, while expanding with Carrefour, Asda, and Morrisons. The NRS hangover is effectively over.

• The OEM Deal Could Change the Company's Scale — Eventually. Eagle Eye has embedded its loyalty platform within a leading global software provider's offering, expanding reach into new regions and sectors.

The initial two contracts are estimated to deliver roughly £2 million of recurring revenue and begin generating income in FY27. That's modest today, but management has said this OEM agreement "has the potential to double the size of Eagle Eye over the medium term." Investors are buying the promise, not yet the proof.

• The Path to FY27 Growth Looks Clear, But Execution Risk Remains. The company expects a return to double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth in FY27.

Longer-term, Eagle Eye is targeting £100 million in revenue and 30%+ EBITDA margins. With shares up nearly 100% over 12 months, the stock is pricing in significant progress. Any stumble in converting the OEM pipeline into real contracts would hit hard.