Shares in Eagle Eye Solutions Group fell 5.2% to £460.00 on September 16, as investors digested full-year results showing headline revenue down 3% to £46.7 million and adjusted EBITDA — a measure of operating profit before certain accounting items — sliding 19% to £9.8 million. The question now: does the loss of one big contract obscure what is otherwise an accelerating business?
One Lost Contract Is Doing All the Damage Eagle Eye's Headline Numbers Look Ugly, But Is the Underlying 21% Growth Story Being Ignored?
Shares in Eagle Eye Solutions slid 5.2% to £460.00 on September 16, the day after full-year results confirmed what investors had feared on paper: revenue fell 3% to £46.7 million and adjusted EBITDA — essentially operating profit before certain non-cash charges — dropped 19% to £9.8 million. But strip out the single contract that caused the damage, and a very different picture emerges. The stock, which still trades up roughly 63% year-to-date, is forcing investors to decide whether they're pricing the rearview mirror or the road ahead.
One Client Exit Is Driving All the Bad Numbers
Underlying revenue excluding the lost Neptune Retail Solutions contract grew 21% to £46.1 million, driven by new customer wins and expansion within existing accounts, including deals with easyJet and Subway.
The NRS contract was high-margin in nature , which explains why its loss hit EBITDA disproportionately hard. When the termination was announced in June 2025, shares cratered to nearly 200p. The recovery since then suggests the market has largely absorbed the blow — but today's dip shows lingering sensitivity to the headline optics.
The Recurring Revenue Engine Is Accelerating
Annual recurring revenue — the subscription and transaction fees the company can reliably count on each year — jumped 31% to £44.5 million, while recurring revenue accounted for 87% of total group revenue. That is a critical number: it means nearly nine out of every ten pounds Eagle Eye earns are predictable, contract-backed income. Net cash also rose 31% to £16.1 million , giving the company a healthy buffer to invest without borrowing.
Results Actually Beat Expectations — by a Wide Margin
Prior to the announcement, market consensus stood at revenue of £45.4 million and adjusted EBITDA of £7.0 million. Eagle Eye delivered £46.7 million and £9.8 million respectively — beating the EBITDA forecast by 40%. Management had targeted a 20% exit EBITDA margin run rate and "materially exceeded" it in the second half.
The Big Question: Can Double-Digit Growth Return?
The company anticipates a return to double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth in FY27.
The most recent analyst rating carries a Buy with a £660 price target , implying roughly 43% upside from today's close. However, stretched valuation metrics and overbought technical readings "raise downside risk despite the uptrend." For shareholders, the core bet is straightforward: if the NRS chapter is truly closed, the underlying business is growing fast and throwing off cash. If new contract wins slow, today's share price already embeds a lot of optimism.