The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) significantly raised its oil price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which is rapidly draining global inventories. Its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released on October 6, also cited exceptionally tight diesel markets as a key factor supporting higher prices.
The EIA now projects global benchmark Brent crude will average $98 a barrel in 2026. That is 8% above the previous month's forecast.
The agency expects Brent to peak at an average of $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. That is a $14 upward revision.
The EIA raised its 2027 forecast by $10 to $84 a barrel. It noted that attacks on regional energy infrastructure continue to pose a risk to supply.