WTI crude futures rose sharply, crossing the 2% threshold due to a convergence of new and ongoing supply risks. The primary driver is an escalating geopolitical risk premium stemming from heightened hostilities in the Middle East, including attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure and threats to oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. [1, 4, 14, 16] This has renewed significant concerns about potential supply disruptions from major producers. [1, 10] Adding to the upward pressure are domestic supply issues in the U.S., where storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico has caused temporary production shut-ins, tightening the physical market. [1, 12]