Barclays initiated coverage of Norway’s Yara International ASA with an underweight rating. The bank established a price target of 380 Norwegian crowns.
Analysts expect elevated nitrogen prices to normalize, suggesting the market has already priced in Yara's structural improvements. Barclays identified increased demand elasticity at higher urea prices. The bank views current supply tightness as cyclical rather than structural. Yara’s cost position remains at the weaker end of the global curve despite recent gains.
Barclays forecasts a 2027 EBITDA of $2.7 billion for the company. This projection is 5% lower than the $2.9 billion analyst consensus. The bank maintains a more conservative outlook on nitrogen pricing than its peers.
Second-quarter deliveries for Yara fell 17% year-on-year. Rising fertilizer prices caused farmers to defer purchases, leading to uncertainty over whether that demand is permanently lost.