Vistra's third quarter 2026 results beat estimates while initiating strong 2027 EBITDA guidance

Vistra reported third quarter 2026 operating revenues of $6.35 billion, significantly exceeding expectations. Performance was driven by record-setting summer heat in ERCOT and PJM markets, which resulted in all-time peak demand records in July. The company achieved a 95% commercial availability across its generation fleet, enabling it to capture higher realized energy and capacity prices. Following the successful closure of the Cogentrix acquisition, management initiated 2027 Adjusted EBITDA guidance with a midpoint of $8.1 billion, well above previous analyst expectations.

Key Highlights

• Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA grew 50% year-over-year to $2.38 billion, beating the $2.17 billion estimate.
• Initiated 2027 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $7.7–$8.5 billion, surpassing the preview range of $7.4–$7.8 billion.
• Board authorized an additional $1.5 billion for share repurchases, bringing total available authorization to approximately $2.5 billion through year-end 2028.
• Closed the acquisition of Cogentrix Energy in October 2026, adding approximately 5,500 MW of natural gas-fueled generation capacity to the portfolio.