Shares of the United States Oil Fund jumped 3.02% to $148.26 on October 8 after attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil flows — collided with a surprise drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles, creating a one-two punch that sent crude prices sharply higher. Gulf Shipping Attacks and Vanishing Stockpiles Send USO Surging — How Long Can the Fear Premium Last?
Shares of USO, the largest exchange-traded fund tracking U.S. crude oil futures, leapt 3.02% to $148.26 on October 8 as a violent escalation in Iran's maritime campaign collided with a surprise drawdown in American crude stockpiles. The question for investors: is this a sustainable rally or a fear spike that fades the moment headlines cool?
Iran's Tanker Attacks Hit Their Worst Week Yet, and Oil Flows Are at Risk
Attacks on tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest of any week since the Iran war began, according to maritime security sources.
In the week of September 28–October 5, there were at least 12 attacks on oil, LNG, and LPG tankers around the strait.
Oil flows through Hormuz now depend on a major U.S. military commitment to protect tankers transiting along a southern route along the coast of Oman. For USO holders, the strait is everything — roughly a fifth of global seaborne oil passes through it. Every uptick in attack frequency adds a risk premium to futures contracts that the fund rolls month after month.
A Surprise Inventory Drop Caught the Market Off Guard
EIA data released October 7 showed U.S. commercial crude stocks fell by 3.186 million barrels, sharply missing the consensus forecast of a 1.9 million barrel build. Shrinking stockpiles signal that demand is outrunning supply domestically, putting a floor under prices. The EIA forecasts global oil inventories fell by an average of 1.9 million barrels per day in Q3 2026 and will fall an additional 0.7 million b/d in Q4.
The EIA Sees $105 Brent This Quarter — and That Embeds More USO Upside
The EIA now forecasts Brent crude will average $105/barrel in Q4 2026, $14 higher than last month's estimate.
WTI crude rose to $91.70 on October 8, up 3.87% from the prior day , while Brent traded near $102.29 . If the EIA's forecast holds, USO still has room to run from here — but that forecast assumes steady Middle East normalization, which this week's attacks directly undermine.
Past Attack Waves Faded Quickly — That's the Bear Case
Previous waves of heavy strikes have led to brief reductions in shipments, though those declines have often been offset by higher volumes in subsequent days.
It is not yet clear whether the latest escalation will mean Hormuz shipments actually fall. Traders who bought USO at its October 1 close of $150.02 are still underwater, a reminder that geopolitical spikes can reverse fast. The fund rewards those who time fear correctly — and punishes those who hold it a day too long.