An investment analysis published October 15, 2026, identifies a significant, under-discussed risk in Uber's autonomous vehicle (AV) strategy. The report acknowledges Uber's strong top-line growth and improving margins. However, it expresses caution regarding the company's fragmented AV investment approach. This approach, the analysis argues, creates valuation uncertainty. It could also erode free cash flow.
The analysis posits that tax allowances have temporarily enhanced Uber's recent earnings. This enhancement may obscure the true profitability of its core operations. Using a discounted cash flow model, the author suggests a fair value for Uber's stock. This value is in the $35-40 range. This range is significantly below the stock's trading price at the time of publication. The author recommends a cautious stance on the investment.