Morningstar warns The Trade Desk's market share could shrink over the next decade. This is due to intensifying competition from Amazon, Google, and Meta. These "walled gardens" possess vast first-party data. This creates a structural disadvantage for The Trade Desk. The Trade Desk operates independently and does not own ad inventory.
Morningstar projects The Trade Desk's digital ad market share could fall. It could drop from nearly 2% to 1.2% by 2034. Morningstar identifies Amazon as a key threat. Amazon's data-rich advertising platform is gaining traction with agencies. This could pressure The Trade Desk's pricing and revenue model. Morningstar set a fair value estimate of $16 for the stock.