Shares of Technoprobe surged +6.3% to €30.60 after the Italian probe card maker — which builds custom devices used to test chips during manufacturing — posted record second-quarter results and raised its full-year outlook for the second time this year. The question now is whether its aggressive factory buildout can keep pace with AI-driven demand without leaving shareholders exposed if the boom cools.
AI Chip Testing Drove a Blowout Quarter
Q2 revenue hit €277.1 million, an all-time high, representing 64.3% year-over-year growth and 48.2% sequential growth from Q1.
EBITDA — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization — rose 135% year over year to €137 million, lifting the margin to 49%.
Management attributed the performance mainly to AI volumes, alongside a gradual recovery in consumer, automotive, and industrial markets. In plain terms: every new AI chip design needs its own custom probe card, and Technoprobe is one of only a handful of companies that can make them at scale.
The Guidance Raise Signals Confidence — and a Higher Bar
Based on first-half performance, the company now expects full-year 2026 revenue of €1.05–€1.10 billion, up from previous guidance of €950 million–€1.05 billion.
The EBITDA margin target was raised to 46%–48%.
Notably, 2027 targets for revenue and EBITDA margin are now expected to be achieved and surpassed in 2026 — a year ahead of the original plan laid out at the company's Capital Market Day.
A €350 Million Factory Buildout Is the Biggest Risk
Technoprobe updated its capex guidance to approximately €350 million through Q1 2027, a significant increase from the previous estimate of €240 million.
The CFO said the company is targeting a capacity run rate of €1.6 billion by the end of Q1 2027, up from €1.4 billion previously.
This aggressive expansion introduces execution risk as the company attempts to deploy €350 million over a compressed 15-month timeframe.
Valuation Already Prices In Perfection
The stock trades at a trailing P/E of roughly 193x with a 52-week range of €5.92–€38.58.
Q3 guidance calls for ~€314 million in revenue and a 52% EBITDA margin , but management warned Q4 could come in somewhere between Q2 and Q3 levels , hinting at a potential GPU-related demand pause. Shareholders are paying for flawless execution — any stumble in the buildout or a sharper-than-expected chip cycle downturn would test this premium severely.