Shares in THG Plc jumped 10.5% to £30.52 after the Manchester-based e-commerce group raised its full-year profit forecast, giving investors their clearest signal yet that a long-struggling turnaround may finally be gaining traction. THG's Protein-Fueled Profit Upgrade Sparks a 10% Rally — But Is Cheaper Whey a Windfall or a Mirage?
Shares in THG Plc surged 10.5% to £30.52 after the e-commerce group lifted its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to £103m, beating market consensus of £101.7m and capping a quarter in which its protein supplements brand drove outsized profitability gains. THG now expects its first year of positive free cash flow since its IPO , a milestone that transforms the investment case — but raises the question of how much of the good news depends on commodity luck versus durable execution.
A Small Numbers Upgrade Is Doing Heavy Lifting on Sentiment. The EBITDA guidance change is marginal — £103m versus a prior consensus of £101.7m — still well within the range of estimates. Yet the stock added roughly £90m in market value in a single session. That tells you how starved THG shareholders have been for positive surprises after years of post-IPO disappointment. Last-twelve-month adjusted EBITDA rose 50% year-on-year to £100.6m at 30 September , up from £95.4m just three months earlier — the trajectory, not the absolute number, is what investors are pricing.
Protein Volumes Are Booming, Masking Soft Top-Line Growth. Group revenue grew just 1.5% in constant currency, but THG Nutrition posted 5.3% growth to £152.4m, driven by a 36.2% jump in branded unit volumes. That pace has slowed from the 57% volume surge in H1, yet it still dwarfs the broader sports nutrition market. New partnerships with Five Guys, Krispy Kreme, Gold's Gym, and Caffè Nero are pushing the brand beyond its online roots. Meanwhile, THG Beauty declined 0.6% in Q3 , a drag the company needs to fix before investors treat the recovery as group-wide.
Falling Whey Costs Are a Double-Edged Sword. Whey protein concentrate prices have cooled since their August 2026 peak , giving THG an input-cost tailwind. The company has locked in long-term contracts on creatine, amino acids, and other key raw materials at historically low pricing through Q4 and into 2027. That secures near-term margins, but investors should remember that demand for whey has been structurally boosted by GLP-1 weight-loss drug users increasing protein intake, and dairy economists expect prices to stay elevated. Any reversal could compress the advantage faster than expected.
Free Cash Flow Is the Real Test Ahead. THG expects £25m–£35m of positive free cash flow for the full year — money the business actually generates after covering all costs and investments. That figure matters more than EBITDA because THG has historically burned cash even while reporting operating profit improvements. Delivering on that target in Q4 would mark a genuine inflection; missing it would confirm sceptics' fear that headline profit gains aren't translating to shareholder value.