Swissquote's Crypto Crash Wipes Out 14% of Its Market Cap — Can Record Client Assets Save the Bull Case?

Shares of Swissquote Group cratered 13.4% to CHF 36.80 after the Swiss online bank slashed its 2026 guidance, revealing how deeply its fortunes remain tied to a crypto market it cannot control. The company cut its pre-tax profit target to roughly CHF 365 million from CHF 420 million and trimmed its revenue outlook to CHF 730 million, catching markets off guard.

The stock is now down 24% year-to-date and sits 33% below its 52-week high of CHF 56.40.

• Crypto Went From Growth Engine to Deadweight in Six Months. Crypto-related revenue collapsed roughly two-thirds to just CHF 14.6 million, falling from nearly 12% of group revenue in the prior-year period to just 4%.

Trading volume in digital assets dropped 63.5% to CHF 2.58 billion.

Management's original 2026 guidance assumed a stronger contribution from crypto , meaning the miss wasn't just bad luck — it was a bad bet built into the forecast.

• Everything Else Actually Grew — But the Market Didn't Care. Fee and commission income excluding crypto rose 13%, trading income climbed 15.8%, net interest income was up 7.2%, and foreign-exchange revenue gained 9.1%.

Client assets hit a record CHF 96.3 billion, up 19.8% year-on-year. Yet the selloff shows investors had priced Swissquote for the upside of crypto, not its absence — and now must recalibrate.

• Costs Are Rising at the Wrong Time. Total expenses jumped 4.6% to CHF 181.3 million, with depreciation surging 28.7% and marketing spend up 14.4%.

Headcount rose 13.7% to 1,511 employees after a technology hiring spree.

Combined with lower crypto revenue, these costs helped push net profit down roughly 2.9% to CHF 153.6 million. Management says AI-driven productivity gains will start appearing in H2, but that's a promise shareholders now must take on faith.

• The Long-Term Target Stands — For Now. Swissquote left its 2028 target of CHF 500 million in pre-tax profit unchanged , implying a 37% leap from the new 2026 guidance. Analysts still average a "Buy" rating with a CHF 51.09 price target — roughly 39% upside — but that consensus was set before this guidance cut. The gap between where the stock trades and where the Street thinks it belongs will narrow only if crypto recovers or core businesses accelerate enough to compensate. Neither is guaranteed.