Shares of SpaceX surged 10.7% to BRL 54.69 after the company delivered a blowout third quarter that shattered Wall Street expectations and marked a dramatic financial turning point. Revenue rose 161% to $14.6 billion, cruising past the $12.86 billion analysts expected.
Net income came in at $4.4 billion, far exceeding estimates of $1.9 billion. For a company that was bleeding cash just one quarter ago, the swing is staggering — and investors are pricing it in fast.
• An AI Business No One Saw Coming Now Drives the Company. SpaceX's AI unit, branded "Super Intelligence," generated $7.56 billion in revenue, compared with just $813 million in the same quarter a year earlier — a ninefold increase. That makes Super Intelligence SpaceX's single largest revenue segment, ahead of both Starlink connectivity and the core launch business. This is no longer a rocket company that dabbles in AI; it's an AI infrastructure giant that also launches rockets. Investors need to rethink which business actually sets the valuation floor.
• The Profit Swing Changes the Investment Case Overnight. Revenue of $14.58 billion nearly doubled from Q2's $7.81 billion, while net income swung from a -$541 million loss in Q2 to a +$4.40 billion profit — a single-quarter turnaround of nearly $5 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA hit $8.8 billion, a 306% increase year over year, reflecting operating leverage — meaning revenue grew much faster than costs. That profitability shift is what separates a speculative bet from a cashflow story.
• Massive Spending Is the Price of This Growth. Q3 capital spending was $19.6 billion, with Q4 spending projected at $35 billion to $40 billion. SpaceX is burning cash faster than it earns it to build AI computing capacity and expand Starship. The company reaffirmed its goal of reaching a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by the end of 2026. That target is ambitious given that it implies roughly $27 billion in Q4 revenue — nearly double Q3.
• A $3.5 Trillion Merger Idea Adds Excitement — and Uncertainty. Musk said both companies had established special committees to explore a merger,
but cautioned that 50% of Tesla shareholders would need to approve, calling it a "high hurdle."
Tech analyst Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management said he believes there's a 95% chance a deal will take place in the next two years. The merger talk is a sideshow for now — the earnings beat is what moved the stock. But if a deal materializes, it would reshape how markets value Musk's entire empire.