Shares inched up 0.7% to $149.79 as SpaceX prepared to open Starship's first orbital launch window today at 8:15 a.m. ET from Starbase, Texas — a mission that, if successful, would mark the rocket's transition from experimental prototype to revenue-generating workhorse. SpaceX's First Orbital Starship Launch Could Prove the Rocket Works — But Can It Justify a $2 Trillion Valuation?
Shares edged up 0.7% to $149.79 ahead of what could be the most consequential test flight in SpaceX's history: Starship's first attempt to reach orbit. The company is targeting a 75-minute window opening at 8:15 a.m. EDT on Monday, Sept. 28, for Flight 14 — the previous 13 flights all followed suborbital trajectories . The muted price reaction suggests the market is waiting for proof, not promises.
A Revenue-Generating Rocket, Not Just a Test Vehicle. SpaceX plans to deploy 26 Starlink V3 satellites, marking the first orbital deployment of its next-generation internet hardware from Starship . That matters because the company's CFO has called this Starship's first revenue-generating flight. Each V3 satellite adds 1 terabit per second of capacity — roughly 10 times what a single Falcon 9 launch of older satellites delivers . More capacity means more paying subscribers on a network that already counts more than 12 million subscribers as of June 2026 .
Starlink Is the Only Business Making Money. Starlink's satellite internet revenue grew 50% year-over-year in 2025 to $11.4 billion, with an adjusted profit margin of 63% . In Q2 2026, connectivity revenue hit $4.29 billion against total SpaceX revenue of $7.81 billion . But average consumer revenue per user fell to $66 per month, down from $99 in 2023 . Starship's ability to deploy larger, more powerful satellites cheaply is the clearest path to reversing that squeeze — either through better service that commands higher prices or through dramatically lower launch costs.
The Valuation Already Prices In Perfection. SpaceX trades at a trailing price-to-sales ratio — meaning its market value divided by its revenue — of roughly 90 times , a level that dwarfs even the most richly valued tech giants. Morningstar pegs fair value at just $62 per share , less than half the current price. A wave of lock-up expirations — when insiders can first sell their shares — is expected to flood the market with new supply through 2027. Success today won't change those overhangs overnight.
NASA's Moon Plans Ride on This Rocket Too. A successful orbital test brings SpaceX one step closer to fulfilling NASA's Artemis moon missions , for which it holds contracts worth roughly $4 billion combined . Failure would raise serious questions about those timelines and SpaceX's ability to serve as NASA's primary lunar taxi.
Bottom line: Today's launch is a binary event. Success validates the most ambitious rocket ever built and accelerates a satellite business already growing at near-doubling pace. Failure would reinforce the bear case that this stock is priced for a future that remains unproven.