Shares surged +3.7% to $166.49 as investors digested two colliding forces: a high-profile endorsement from one of tech's loudest bulls, and the latest tranche of a staggered insider share unlock landing on the same day.

  • An AI Stamp of Approval From a $1 Billion Fund

Dan Ives added SpaceX and Dell to his Ives AI 30 "Winner List" while removing Oracle and Pegasystems, ahead of an expected rebalance of the Dan IVES Wedbush AI Revolution ETF. That fund — essentially a portfolio built from Ives's 30 favorite AI stocks — currently has over $1.1 billion in assets under management. When it rebalances, the ETF is expected to adjust its holdings in the coming days , meaning real buying pressure for SPCX. The thesis: Yorkville Ives said space has become an AI infrastructure layer, with low-earth-orbit connectivity now a scaled commercial and national-security network. In plain English, Ives is betting that Starlink's satellite internet network doubles as the plumbing for AI, not just broadband.

  • A Flood of New Shares Could Undercut the Rally

The company faces another major share unlock on October 9, when up to 328.4 million shares can become available for sale. This is part of a staggered lockup schedule — the last expiration was on September 24, when 328.4 million shares became eligible; the stock fell 4.1% the day before but edged down just 0.2% on the unlock date itself. The pattern suggests the market has been absorbing new supply better than feared, but each wave tests demand anew.

  • A $2 Trillion Company Still Running at a Loss

Q2 2026 delivered $7.8 billion in revenue (+92% year-over-year) and adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion, yet the company still posted a net loss of $541 million.

SpaceX's market cap sits near $2 trillion, with analysts estimating 2026 revenue of roughly $34–$43 billion. Even at the high end, that implies a price-to-sales ratio (stock price divided by revenue per share) above 45x — territory normally reserved for the fastest-growing software companies, not an aerospace firm.

  • Analyst Targets Leave Room, but the Float Remains Tiny

Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus with an average price target of $235.10, implying 37% upside.

Wedbush itself initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $190 target. But with the free float still estimated at roughly 19% of total shares , every unlock event carries outsized price impact. Today's question is straightforward: can institutional demand — fueled by a fresh ETF inclusion — absorb the supply wall that just arrived?