SanDisk's 37% Plunge in One Week Forces the Question: Can the Memory Boom Survive a Chinese Supply Flood?
Shares of SanDisk plummeted to $6.23 on the Buenos Aires CEDEAR market — a -7.6% session drop and a staggering -37% collapse from $10.00 just five trading days ago — as a triple threat of profit-taking, Chinese competition, and peak-pricing fears converged on the memory sector's biggest 2026 winner.
An 858% Rally Made SanDisk the Easiest Target for Sellers
SanDisk and Micron were two of the best-performing S&P 500 stocks in the first half of 2026 — through June 30, SanDisk's U.S.-listed stock had surged an extraordinary 858%. That kind of run creates a crowded trade. UBS attributed this week's chip weakness to fragile investor sentiment ahead of hyperscaler earnings, layered on competition fears and rotation out of crowded AI trades.
Microsoft and Meta report Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon Thursday — any softness in AI spending guidance could deepen the damage.
A Chinese Rival's Blockbuster IPO Changed the Calculus
China's CXMT stunned investors with a 466% first-day gain following its Shanghai IPO, reigniting fears that Beijing is rapidly closing the technology gap in memory chips.
CXMT is the world's fourth-largest DRAM maker at 8% market share. On the NAND side, where SanDisk competes directly, YMTC captured 13% of the global NAND flash market in Q1 2026.
Reports that Apple is testing CXMT chips accelerated fears of Chinese memory reaching top-tier customers.
The "Peak Pricing" Warning Hits SanDisk Hardest
Barron's reported that analyst Karl Ackerman expects DRAM and NAND average selling prices to peak in mid-2026 and begin falling quarter over quarter as early as 2027. SanDisk's revenue — which is almost entirely NAND flash — is more exposed to a pricing downturn than diversified rivals like Micron. Morningstar's William Kerwin has called SanDisk's NAND boom "tremendous, but finite," keeping a "Very High" uncertainty rating.
SK Hynix's Spending Spree Spooked the Whole Sector
SK Hynix delivered a record operating profit — up 557% year over year — but guided 2026 capital expenditure up 50% to at least $31 billion, stoking fears the AI investment cycle is overheating. More factory spending today means more chip supply tomorrow, which threatens the pricing environment that fueled SanDisk's extraordinary run. For shareholders in the CEDEAR, the math is simple: if storage prices are truly peaking, the stock that rose the most has the most to lose.