Shares of SanDisk tumbled roughly 11% to $7.75 on its Argentine CEDEAR listing after the newly independent memory-chip maker delivered a strong fiscal fourth quarter but guided first-quarter revenue below what Wall Street wanted to hear. The miss raises a pointed question: whether the AI-driven storage boom that lifted the entire sector is hitting a speed bump — or something worse. SanDisk Delivers a Blowout Quarter Then Spooks the Street — Can $93 Billion in Contracts Calm Jittery Investors?
Shares skidded 10.9% to $7.75 on the CEDEAR listing after SanDisk paired a record fiscal fourth quarter with a first-quarter outlook that landed below Wall Street's lofty bar. Revenue hit $8.97 billion, up 51% sequentially and 372% year-over-year , yet the stock's reaction underscores a market that prices the future, not the past.
A Huge Beat Overshadowed by a Modest Miss on the Road Ahead
Q4 revenue topped analyst estimates of roughly $8.48 billion, and adjusted earnings of $39.25 per share crushed the $34.96 consensus. But SanDisk guided Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue to $10.3–$10.8 billion, against estimates reaching as high as $11.16 billion.
The midpoint of roughly $10.55 billion fell short of the Street's $10.8–$11.2 billion range , and in a stock up over 390% year-to-date, even a slight shortfall triggers a sell-first-ask-later reflex.
Record Profitability May Be Plateauing — and That Scares Growth Investors
Gross margin reached a record 84.6% last quarter, but forward guidance calls for 83%–85% — essentially flat. Margins have not continued to rise, and for a stock that rallied on the narrative of ever-improving pricing power, stabilization reads like deceleration.
Management cited higher planned inventory levels that reduce sellable output and persistent supply allocation as constraints.
$93 Billion in Contracts Is the Bull Case — If You Trust Long-Term Deals
SanDisk says multi-year customer agreements now represent $93.9 billion of contracted revenue, including $16.5 billion in AI-related guarantees.
Management expects these deals to account for more than half of all memory chip shipments in fiscal 2027. That backlog reduces the boom-and-bust swings traditional in memory chips, but investors must trust that hyperscaler customers won't renegotiate if AI spending cools.
A $14 Billion Buyback and an Investor Day Offer Near-Term Anchors
The board authorized a $14 billion share repurchase program , while an August 13 Investor Day is viewed as the next catalyst.
Analysts broadly maintained bullish ratings — Evercore trimmed its target to $2,800, Jefferies cut to $1,750, and Morgan Stanley held at $1,750 — suggesting the selloff is a recalibration, not an abandonment of the thesis. For CEDEAR holders, the question is whether one soft guide resets a structural AI-storage story or simply offers a cheaper entry point.