Samsung's DRAM Power Play and AI Ambitions: Can Memory Pricing Alone Sustain a Trillion-Dollar Valuation?
Shares of Samsung Electronics whipsawed this week, surging 8.22% on July 4 after losing 9.1% the day before , as two catalysts converged: a planned 20% DRAM price hike for Q3 and reports of a potential chip-manufacturing deal with AI startup Anthropic. For shareholders, the question is whether Samsung's pricing power and AI pivot can justify a stock that has already risen roughly 190% year-to-date.
Three Straight Quarters of Price Hikes Are Printing Record Profits
Samsung's DRAM average selling prices jumped over 90% in Q1, followed by an estimated 50% increase in Q2. Now the company is pushing for another 20% in Q3, with mobile memory potentially seeing even steeper increases. The financial payoff is enormous: Q1 operating profit skyrocketed 756% year-on-year to 57.2 trillion won (~$38.4 billion), surpassing Samsung's entire 2025 full-year profit in a single quarter.
The chip division contributed 94% of total operating profit — the most lopsided earnings structure in the company's history.
The Anthropic Deal Could Rewrite Samsung's Foundry Story
Anthropic is specifically considering Samsung's 2-nanometer manufacturing process and advanced packaging facilities for a custom AI chip. Samsung's foundry business lost $5.3 billion in 2023 and has struggled to compete with TSMC. Landing Anthropic — whose run-rate revenue has tripled past $30 billion — would be a credibility win. But Anthropic hasn't yet decided what the chip will be used for, how powerful it will be, or how it fits into a server , so this remains early-stage speculation, not a signed contract.
Memory Riches Are Cannibalizing Samsung's Own Phone Business
The price hikes that fuel chip profits are hurting the other side of the house. Mobile division profit fell 35% to 2.8 trillion won in Q1 due to higher component costs.
Core component costs now exceed 40% of total smartphone production costs , and management has internally warned the mobile unit could post its first-ever annual loss.
A $1.9 Trillion Bet Demands Patience
Samsung committed 2,655 trillion won (~$1.9 trillion) in domestic spending through 2040 , spanning new chip plants, AI data centers, and advanced manufacturing. Because this infrastructure initiative spans a decade, it offers no near-term relief for today's supply crunch. That means pricing power likely persists — but so does the risk of a violent reversal if AI infrastructure spending slows before those factories come online. All 36 covering analysts rate Samsung a buy , which itself is a contrarian warning sign.