SLV Surges 3% as Weak Jobs Data Cools Rate Fears, but Can Silver's Rally Stick?

Shares of the iShares Silver Trust jumped $1.61 to $55.06, their best single-day gain in over a week, after a softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report reshaped the interest-rate landscape and pulled Treasury yields lower — a combination that acts like rocket fuel for non-yielding assets like silver. SLV Surges 3% as Weak Jobs Data Cools Rate Fears, but Can Silver's Rally Stick?

Shares of SLV snapped back +3.02% to $55.06 on Friday, recovering all of the week's losses in a single session, after a dismal U.S. jobs report undercut the case for further Federal Reserve rate hikes and Treasury yields retreated from 22-year highs. For holders of a fund that tracks silver — an asset that pays no interest — lower rates make the metal relatively more attractive. The question is whether this relief rally has legs or is just a pause in a punishing rate environment.

A Jobs Miss of Historic Proportions Changed the Rate Calculus Overnight. U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September versus a forecast of 89,000 , roughly one-third of the median estimate . Prior months were also revised sharply lower, with July and August together 60,000 jobs weaker than previously reported.

Global brokerages now largely expect the Fed to deliver just one more rate hike this year, with December seen as more likely than October. That matters directly for SLV: when expected interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding silver drops, drawing buyers in.

Yields Pulled Back From Levels Not Seen Since 2002. The 10-year Treasury yield had surged to 5.35% on October 8 — its highest since April 2002.

By end-of-day Thursday, the 10-year had already fallen 6 basis points to 5.22% , and eased further to 5.23% on October 9. Even a modest pullback at these elevated levels can spark a meaningful bid in precious metals, because the starting yield is so high that any decline feels amplified.

Falling Oil Prices and Diplomatic Signals Eased the Inflation Backdrop. Brent crude fell to $102.60 on October 9, down 1.61% , after Trump said the U.S. would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterms.

Iran and the U.S. have exchanged proposals in recent weeks to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz , a vital oil-shipping lane. Cheaper oil dampens inflation expectations, reinforcing the case that the Fed can hold rates steady — another tailwind for silver.

The Ceiling on This Rally May Be Lower Than Bulls Hope. Silver is still down nearly 5% over the past month despite being up over 20% year-on-year. Futures markets price the fed funds rate rising to roughly 4.7% by October 2027 , meaning the rate environment remains hostile to non-yielding assets. Continued attacks on shipping around Hormuz mean "the geopolitical premium is unlikely to disappear quickly" — keeping inflation risks alive and the Fed's hand uncertain. One soft payroll print doesn't end a tightening cycle; it merely buys silver a breather.