Shares of the iShares Silver Trust jumped 4.46% to $46.84 on November 4 after Democrats scored a stronger-than-expected showing in Tuesday's midterm elections, triggering a sharp selloff in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields that lifted precious metals across the board. The move marks a rebound from a punishing slide that saw SLV fall from $49.06 on October 28 to $44.60 by October 30 — but investors should think carefully about whether the bounce has legs. Silver Pops 4.5% on Democratic Midterm Sweep, but Will Rate Hikes and Fading Industrial Demand Cap the Comeback?

Shares of the iShares Silver Trust surged 4.46% to $46.84 after Democrats seized control of Congress in Tuesday's midterms, sending the U.S. dollar to a five-week low and dragging Treasury yields sharply lower — a combination that hands precious metals a rare tailwind in an otherwise brutal stretch. The dollar index fell below 101.5, its lowest level in five weeks, as investors assessed midterm results pointing to major Democratic gains. The bounce follows a gut-wrenching decline: SLV dropped from $49.06 on October 28 to $44.60 by October 30, and silver hit a low of $48.62 on Tuesday morning, its lowest level since November 2025 in futures terms.

  • A Political Shakeup Weakened the Dollar — and That's Silver's Oxygen. Markets weighed the prospect of Democrats securing control of both the House and Senate, potentially leading to legislative gridlock, limiting President Trump's ability to advance his economic agenda and curbing federal expenditures. When the dollar weakens, commodities priced in dollars become cheaper for overseas buyers, lifting demand. Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the 2-year down five basis points to 4.566% and the benchmark 10-year down six basis points to 4.90%. Lower yields reduce the "opportunity cost" of holding silver, which pays no interest.

  • The Fed Still Looms as the Biggest Threat. Today's rally may prove fleeting. Markets broadly expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged this month, while the probability of a December hike currently stands at around 78%.

Silver is unlikely to establish a durable bottom until it is clear that the Fed is done raising rates. A jobs report on November 6 and CPI on November 10 could reignite rate-hike bets and reverse today's gains.

  • Weakening Industrial Demand Undercuts the Bull Case. Unlike gold, roughly half of silver demand comes from factories. Industrial silver fabrication is expected to decline 3% this year to 639.6 million ounces, approximately 57% of total demand, according to the World Silver Survey. Photovoltaic demand — once the growth engine — is down about 19% as manufacturers use less silver per panel.

  • A Structural Deficit Provides a Floor, Not a Springboard. The global silver market is expected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit, with demand exceeding supply by approximately 46 million ounces. That keeps long-term support intact, but a large part of any rebound still rests on the Fed. Until December's rate decision passes, SLV holders are trading a political catalyst against a monetary headwind — and history says the Fed usually wins.