Shares of abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF surged 3.2% to $38.48 on November 4 as midterm election results rippled through currency and commodity markets, raising a pointed question: is this a one-day political trade or the start of a durable gold bid?
Democrats' Midterm Gains Knocked the Dollar Down, and That's Rocket Fuel for Gold Gold Breaks $4,000 on Election Night — But Will SGOL's Rally Survive Friday's Jobs Report?
Shares of SGOL, the abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF, jumped 3.2% to $38.48 on Wednesday as a convergence of political and commodity shocks lit a fire under the gold market. Gold gained more than 2% as the dollar weakened and Treasury yields fell following Democratic victories in the US midterm elections. For holders of SGOL — a fund that tracks physical gold prices — the question is whether the rally has legs or is a one-day political sugar rush ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.
A Weaker Dollar Is Gold's Best Friend — and Democrats Just Delivered One
The US dollar index fell below 101.5, hitting its lowest level in five weeks as investors assessed midterm election results pointing to major Democratic gains.
Markets weighed the prospect of Democrats securing control of both chambers, potentially leading to legislative gridlock and limiting President Trump's ability to advance his economic agenda. Gold is priced in dollars, so when the greenback falls, gold gets cheaper for overseas buyers and demand rises. The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell 4 basis points to 4.919%. Lower yields reduce the advantage of holding bonds over gold, which pays no interest — making the metal more attractive by comparison.
A 7% Oil Crash Took Some Heat Off Inflation — and Gave Gold Room to Run
Brent crude oil fell 7.6% to $104.77 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil dropped 7.3% to $96.46 per barrel after U.S.-Iran peace signals emerged. Brent crude slipped to $103.2 by November 4, while US spot gold rose amid a weaker dollar and election uncertainty. Cheaper oil eases inflation expectations, which makes it less likely the Federal Reserve will raise rates aggressively — a backdrop that historically supports gold prices.
The Spot Market Tells the Same Story — Gold Crossed $4,000
Spot gold reached around $4,016 an ounce, while December US gold futures traded near $4,027. SGOL's 3.2% move closely mirrors the underlying metal, confirming the ETF is tracking efficiently. Central banks purchased a net 321 tonnes of gold in Q3 2026, contributing to a record total of 4,256 tonnes in gold ETFs, indicating strong institutional demand. That structural buying provides a floor, but gold still sat well below its recent highs near $4,300.
Friday's Jobs Data Could Reverse the Trade
The US midterm election results, unemployment figures, and non-farm payrolls data remain outstanding developments for assessing the Federal Reserve's future policy stance.
Most analysts expect a modest, short-lived reaction in the US dollar rather than a lasting trend from the midterms alone. A hot jobs number Friday could snap yields and the dollar back up, unwinding much of today's gold rally. SGOL holders should treat this as a favorable — but fragile — setup.