Shares of PayPal surged 14.5% to $60.14 on September 23 as markets re-priced the stock around a takeover offer that, by most accounts, already collapsed once. Stripe and private equity firm Advent International bid $60.50 a share on July 15, a 28% premium that valued PayPal above $53 billion, backed by roughly $50 billion in committed financing from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley.

PayPal's board turned it down as too low.

By late August, the consortium abandoned its pursuit entirely — and now, with the stock snapping back to the bid price on fresh speculation, shareholders face a simple question: is the deal alive or is the market chasing a ghost?

  • The Board Wanted $70, Not $60.50 — That Gap Never Closed. Reporting put PayPal's board expectation nearer $70 , while financial services firm Cantor independently valued the company at closer to $70 per share. That is a 16% gap above the bid. Negotiations kept stalling because Stripe believed PayPal's rising stock reflected its own acquisition interest, whereas PayPal argued its turnaround was delivering real results. Unless a sweetened offer bridges that disagreement, the stock is leaning on hope, not a signed term sheet.

  • PayPal's Turnaround Numbers Are Real but Modest. Q2 revenue rose 5% to $8.7 billion, beating estimates, and adjusted earnings of $1.38 per share topped the $1.28 consensus. But branded checkout — the PayPal button shoppers click to pay — grew volume just 2% on a currency-neutral basis, a second consecutive quarter at that sluggish pace , raising questions about competitive pressure from Apple, Google, and Stripe itself.

  • At $60.14, the Market Is Doing Stripe's Job for Free. The stock now trades just $0.36 below the original bid. After the August collapse, analysts at Clear Street, Mizuho, and Truist all cut their price targets , landing in the $51–$55 range. Investors buying here are paying a full takeover premium with zero certainty a deal closes — and a ~15% drop back to the mid-$50s if talks stay dead.

  • The Cash Flow Makes PayPal a Legitimate Target — Eventually. PayPal generated $6.4 billion in free cash flow last year and held $13.5 billion in cash and investments , meaning the business could theoretically pay off a $53 billion acquisition cost in under nine years even without growth. On a forward price-to-earnings basis, the stock's ratio of roughly 10x sits below the industry average of 11.3x. That cheapness is precisely why bidders keep circling — and why shareholders keep hoping.

The bottom line: PayPal's valuation screams "buy me," but the only confirmed bid was rejected, then withdrawn. Today's price assumes a deal that doesn't yet exist.