Shares of Perpetua Resources rocketed 10.3% to $22.81 on Thursday, extending a blistering 32% rally from last week's $17.26 close, as investors continued to pile into the stock following the July 29 ribbon-cutting of a U.S. Army–backed antimony processing pilot plant at Idaho National Laboratory. The question now: how much of the company's long road to production is already priced in?
• The Pentagon Is Bankrolling Perpetua's Pitch as America's Sole Antimony Source. Since 2022, Perpetua has been awarded over $87 million from the U.S. Department of War and the U.S. Army to advance the project.
In 2021, China ceased providing the U.S. with the specialized antimony trisulfide essential for more than 300 types of ammunition — a cutoff that turned Perpetua's Stibnite Gold Project into a national security priority. Stibnite is the only known domestic source of antimony that can meet U.S. defense needs.
• One Ton a Day Is a Proof of Concept, Not a Business. The plant will operate 24 hours a day, processing approximately one ton of material per day , and it will run for about five months to assess whether Stibnite antimony can be refined to military grades. That is a laboratory exercise. The full Stibnite mine is expected to produce nearly 115 million pounds of antimony over a 12-to-15-year mine life , but construction is underway and mining could begin as soon as 2029. Investors are paying today for cash flows at least three years away.
• The Stock Still Trades Well Below Wall Street Targets. According to seven analysts, the average rating is "Strong Buy" with a 12-month price target of $38.90 — roughly 71% above the current price.
At a market capitalization of roughly $2.3 billion , that valuation rests on a company with zero revenue and a $300 million bought-deal financing plus a $2 billion Export-Import Bank loan application still underpinning the buildout.
• Antimony Prices Have Cooled but Geopolitical Risk Hasn't. Antimony hit a historic peak of $59,750 per tonne in July 2025 , then retreated as Southeast Asian capacity came online and Chinese export approvals became more predictable. Yet geopolitical factors remain a key driver, with China's export controls and U.S.-China trade tensions reshaping global trade flows. Every new supply shock strengthens Perpetua's strategic case — but the company won't mine an ounce of antimony until the decade's end.