Shares surged 11.1% to $30.36 Tuesday morning after On Holding, the Swiss sportswear brand backed by Roger Federer, unveiled its first-ever share buyback and an aggressive three-year growth blueprint at its Zurich investor day. The stock had entered the session near its 52-week low of $26.36, having shed more than 40% year-to-date — meaning the announcement landed squarely against a backdrop of deep skepticism.
A $1 Billion Signal That Management Thinks the Stock Is Too Cheap
The $1 billion buyback represents roughly 11% of On's market capitalization. That is a meaningful share of the company's value, not a token gesture. But a multi-year authorization is a framework, not a one-time jolt — repurchases can shrink the share count and support per-share earnings, yet authorizations aren't promises. Investors will watch whether cash actually flows into buybacks quarter by quarter.
Nearly $7 Billion in Revenue by 2029 Would Mean On Roughly Doubles
The targets imply at least CHF 5.6 billion in 2029 revenue, or nearly $7 billion at current exchange rates.
On is targeting a high-teens constant-currency sales compound annual growth rate from 2026 through 2029 , alongside a gross profit margin of at least 65% and an adjusted EBITDA margin — essentially cash profit before interest, taxes, and certain accounting adjustments — of at least 22% by 2029.
The company's current gross margin already stands at 64.8%, positioning it well to achieve this target.
New Categories Carry Big Ambitions — and Big Risks
On is spending to build new lines, including a recent deal with French soccer star Kylian Mbappé, as it pushes into a category dominated by Nike, Adidas, and Puma.
Running, sneakers, and apparel are expected to drive the bulk of the growth, with football and golf as added bets. Entering sports where entrenched giants have decades-long supply chains is expensive and uncertain.
Wall Street Is Leaning In — For Now
Stifel reiterated a Buy rating with a $41 price target , while Morgan Stanley resumed coverage with an overweight rating and a $39 target.
At a P/E of 19 and a notably low PEG ratio of 0.10, the stock appears attractively valued relative to its growth. Still, fiscal 2026 earnings estimates had been reduced by $0.05 over the prior 60 days , a reminder that execution — not aspiration — will determine whether Tuesday's rally holds.