Shares of Novo Nordisk edged up 0.2% to $254.30 on Oct. 10, a muted reaction to a potentially seismic development: the European Patent Office's Board of Appeal revoked patent EP 3 448 416, reversing its own preliminary opinion in a decision likely to have "far-reaching consequences." The ruling accelerates a pattern — the EPO revoked two other semaglutide patents in autumn 2024 — that is systematically stripping the protection around the world's most lucrative weight-loss and diabetes drugs.

  • A Six-Year Revenue Shield Just Got Shortened. The revoked patent could have protected Ozempic and Wegovy until 2037. Without it, European market exclusivity may end around 2031, potentially allowing copycat drugs years earlier than planned. In the U.S., compound patent expiry for semaglutide is 2032.

Novo's obesity care sales alone hit DKK 82.3 billion (~$12 billion) in 2025 , meaning even a modest erosion in pricing power post-2031 would cut billions from annual revenue. Generic makers like Teva, Sandoz, and multiple Indian and Chinese firms are already lining up.

  • The Patent Losses Are Part of a Broader Pattern, Not an Isolated Setback. Sandoz has launched a revocation action at Europe's Unified Patent Court and is seeking orders to prevent Novo from withdrawing patent texts to avoid unfavorable rulings.

Multiple manufacturers have also filed applications with the FDA for generic versions of Ozempic, Wegovy, and the oral diabetes pill Rybelsus, challenging existing U.S. patents. Novo is fighting on every front, but each lost patent narrows the remaining defensive perimeter.

  • Wall Street Is Already Pricing In Slower Growth. Citi cut its price target to DKK 296 from DKK 310 , citing management guidance for "broadly stable" margins through 2030. Citi now values Novo at 14× projected 2027 earnings, down from 15×, and slashed its expected annual earnings-per-share growth for 2027–2030 to 9% from 12%. Translation: even before generics arrive, rising R&D spending is eating into profit growth.

  • The Pill May Be Novo's Best Counter-Punch. The new oral version of Wegovy launched in the U.S. this year and posted DKK 2.26 billion in Q1 sales — roughly double analyst expectations.

Citi raised its oral Wegovy peak-sales estimate to $13 billion. A pill form is harder for generics to replicate than an injection, giving Novo a potential new layer of protection. Whether that alone can compensate for an eroding patent portfolio is the question shareholders must now answer.