Shares cratered 8.9% to $32.01 on October 2 after Nike's fiscal first-quarter results and full-year outlook landed well below what Wall Street had been banking on. Nike reported revenue of $11.21 billion, down 4% from a year earlier, and projected a high-single-digit percentage decline in revenue for fiscal 2027.
Adjusted earnings guidance of $1.15 to $1.35 per share came in below the $1.61 consensus — and below every individual analyst estimate compiled by Nasdaq. For a stock already down roughly 80% from its 2021 peak, this was the opposite of the stabilization investors were hoping for.
The Outlook, Not the Quarter, Did the Damage
The quarter itself was close to expectations — revenue of $11.2 billion, earnings of $0.48 a share. The damage came from the outlook.
Nike had previously forecast only a low-to-mid-single-digit decline for the first half. The new full-year guide essentially tells shareholders that this turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill, now nearly two years in, is not yet gaining traction on the top line.
China Is a Worsening Problem, Not a Stabilizing One
Greater China remained a significant drag: revenue in the region dropped 22% on a reported basis and 26% on a currency-neutral basis, to $1.18 billion.
Management said the China reset will take "multiple seasons" and may pressure results into fiscal 2028. Meanwhile, Nike Sportswear revenue declined at a low-double-digit rate after it cut Dunk sales nearly 50%, and Jordan Brand revenue fell at a mid-teens rate — together dragging down the growth that running, football, and basketball are delivering elsewhere.
The Dividend Now Costs More Than Nike Expects to Earn
Nike's annual dividend stands at $1.64 per share, while adjusted EPS guidance tops out at $1.35. That means the payout, if maintained, would exceed earnings — a situation that rarely lasts at big consumer companies without a cut or a rapid profit recovery. Nike still holds $8.4 billion in cash and short-term investments , providing a buffer, but the math puts the dividend squarely under scrutiny.
A Massive Restructuring Offers Relief — Eventually
Nike's new "Pace" restructuring targets roughly $2.5 billion in cumulative savings through fiscal 2031, against about $1 billion in pre-tax charges.
However, executives said the biggest savings won't arrive until fiscal 2029 and 2030. That is a long time for investors to wait when revenue is still shrinking and the brand is losing ground in the world's second-largest economy. At $32, the stock prices in deep pessimism — but the question is whether the floor is in, or still falling.