Shares of Meesho Limited surged as much as 13% to INR 242.28 after UBS retained its Buy rating and lifted its price target to INR 260, signaling that one of Wall Street's heavyweight brokerages sees meaningful upside still ahead for India's social commerce pioneer. Meesho Soars 13% on UBS Upgrade — But Can a Still-Unprofitable E-Commerce Play Grow Into Its Valuation?
Shares of Meesho Limited vaulted 13% to INR 242.28 after UBS raised its price target from INR 220 to INR 260 and boosted its operating forecasts, igniting the sharpest single-session rally the stock has seen in months. The move puts India's social commerce darling within striking distance of its all-time high — and forces investors to decide whether the hype is running ahead of the math.
• UBS Now Sees Far Bigger Profits Ahead, But They're Years Away. UBS hiked its FY29–31 net merchandise value (NMV) — essentially the total value of goods sold on the platform — estimates by 7–18% and its EBITDA (operating profit before non-cash charges) projections by 20–40%. UBS previously said Meesho was "on track for EBITDA breakeven in FY27E, with operating leverage accelerating thereafter." That means meaningful profits aren't expected until at least FY28. Shareholders are buying a long runway, not current earnings.
• The Stock Is Already Trading Above Most Analysts' Targets. At INR 242, Meesho has blown past the street. The average 12-month price target across 10 analysts was just INR 204, with a high of INR 226.
Motilal Oswal initiated in July with a Buy and a target of INR 240. UBS's new INR 260 is now the most bullish call on record, leaving only ~7% upside from the current price. The market is pricing in perfection.
• Revenue Is Surging, But Losses Persist. In FY2026, Meesho posted revenue growth of 44.3% year-over-year, and EBITDA losses narrowed by 90%.
Q1 FY27 revenue hit INR 3,826 crore while net losses shrank to INR 133 crore — roughly half the INR 289 crore loss in the prior quarter. The trajectory is clearly improving, but cash burn remains real for a company with a market cap now around INR 99,200 crore (~$12 billion).
• The Deeper Bet Is on India's Next 500 Million Shoppers. UBS projects Meesho's annual transacting users growing from 199 million to 518 million by FY30, with order frequency rising from 9.2 to 14.7 times per year.
Meesho itself targets a 25% NMV compound annual growth rate over five years. The bull case hinges on Meesho dominating budget-conscious consumers in India's smaller cities — a massive addressable population but one with thin wallets. At roughly 2.4x estimated FY28 revenue, the stock still trades at a steep discount to e-commerce peers averaging 5.4x — which either signals opportunity or reflects justified skepticism about profitability.
UBS's confidence is a powerful endorsement, but at these levels, the stock already reflects most of the good news.