Keel Infrastructure Gives Back a Week's Gains in One Session — Can the AI Pivot Story Survive a Reality Check?

Shares of Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) — the company formerly known as Bitfarms — slid 10.4% to $4.31 on Friday, erasing nearly all gains from a blistering five-day rally that had carried the stock from $3.95 to $4.81. The selloff matters because it tests whether Wall Street's newfound enthusiasm for this ex-Bitcoin miner's reinvention as an AI data center landlord has real staying power — or was just a fast trade.

• An $8 Price Target Lit the Fuse, Then Gravity Did Its Work. On July 22, BTIG initiated coverage of Keel with a Buy rating and an $8 price target , implying roughly 72% upside from the stock's $4.65 close that day . The stock surged nearly 20% in the days that followed, drawing in momentum traders. Today's reversal is textbook profit-taking: short-term buyers who rode the analyst hype locked in gains, leaving the stock roughly where it was before BTIG weighed in. The broader analyst consensus sits at $6.40, and 10 of 11 analysts covering the stock rate it a Buy or better — so the long-term thesis hasn't cracked, even if the short-term trade has.

• Bitcoin's Slide Adds a Second Weight on the Stock. Bitcoin opened at $65,048 on Friday, 1.6% lower than Thursday's opening price . Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $225 million in net outflows on Thursday, breaking a weeklong inflow streak . Keel still earns most of its revenue from mining Bitcoin, so any crypto weakness hits its cash flow directly — the company posts a negative 171% profit margin and -$159 million in trailing free cash flow .

• The Real Question Is Whether 575 Megawatts of Power Can Become AI Revenue. BTIG highlighted Keel's portfolio of roughly 575 megawatts of approved power across four sites as the key asset for expanding into AI computing and colocation services . The company is allocating proceeds from asset sales to its AI/high-performance computing pipeline as it shifts to a 100% North American portfolio . But Keel's operating margin worsened in fiscal Q1 2026, with gross margin falling to -20.8% , showing the pivot is still costing money, not making it.

• A Hedge Fund's Big Bet Keeps the Bull Case Alive. Regulatory filings show Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness LP grew its KEEL position by 188% in Q1 2026, now holding nearly 20 million shares . Smart-money conviction provides a floor of credibility, but shareholders need to see signed data center leases — not just megawatt counts — before today's $4.08 billion market cap looks justified for a company still bleeding cash.