A Seeking Alpha analysis suggests Archer Aviation now presents a better risk/reward profile than Joby Aviation. Archer's recent acquisitions of Boeing's Insitu, Wisk, and SkyGrid drive this shift. These acquisitions provide immediate revenue from military and drone operations. This diversification reduces Archer's dependency on uncertain FAA certification timelines for its eVTOL aircraft.
Joby leads in near-term revenue. Its 2026 forecast stands at $115-$125 million, primarily from Blade operations. However, Joby's overall valuation relies heavily on successful certification and commercialization of its air taxi service. The analysis notes Joby's market cap is roughly 52 times its immediately visible revenue. Archer's post-deal multiple is about 26x.