Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, announced a lower 2026 production forecast on November 3, 2026, putting expected output at 4.94 million metric tons. The revised outlook implies an 8.4% annual decline. In August, the commission had forecast a 2.6% decline.
Cochilco attributed the reduction to lower ore grades, maintenance needs and operational disruptions at key mines. It raised its 2026 average copper price forecast to $6.18 per pound, up from $5.95. The commission also trimmed its 2027 production forecast, signaling a weaker recovery than previously expected.
Physical premiums are elevated, and exchange inventories are declining. Cochilco said the projected global refined copper surplus for both 2026 and 2027 is now minimal. It warned that a small demand surprise could push the market into deficit.