Shares of First HoldCo PLC have surged 26.5% in a single week — from ₦55.00 on July 3 to ₦69.55 — as investors pile in on a trio of catalysts: blockbuster Q1 2026 earnings, an ambitious recapitalisation blueprint, and the first signals that dividends could return this year. The question now is whether the stock's rapid repricing already bakes in the good news, or whether there is more upside as the capital plan takes shape.
A 72% Profit Jump Puts First HoldCo Near the Top of Nigerian Banking
Gross earnings rose 26.8% year-on-year to ₦942 billion in Q1 2026, while profit before tax surged 72.2% to ₦321.1 billion — making the group the second-largest Nigerian lender by pre-tax profit, trailing only Zenith Bank . Profit after tax hit ₦267.8 billion, up 56.5% . The results matter because they prove last year's painful ₦826 billion balance-sheet cleanup — writing off bad loans in one stroke — is now translating into cleaner, higher-quality earnings.
The Balance Sheet Reset Is Already Paying Back in Cash
Loan recoveries exploded from ₦1 billion in Q1 2025 to ₦19 billion in Q1 2026, a 1,570% jump . The cost-to-income ratio (how much the bank spends to earn each naira) improved from 53.8% to 45.2% , and return on equity — the profit generated per unit of shareholder capital — reached 31.6%, up from 4.6% at year-end 2025 .
Shareholders Backed a ₦253 Billion Capital Raise Targeting ₦1 Trillion
At the May 29 AGM, shareholders authorised a capital raise of up to ₦253.1 billion to push paid-up capital to ₦1 trillion — double the Central Bank of Nigeria's ₦500 billion minimum for international-licence banks . About ₦270 billion has already been injected into FirstBank . Dilution is a real risk — shares outstanding rose 17% over the past year — but Chairman Femi Otedola's conviction is clear: he personally bought 549.5 million additional shares for ₦43.4 billion in May .
Dividend Return Hinges on Sustaining the Run Rate
CEO Wale Oyedeji said Q1 performance supports hopes of dividend payments returning in 2026, though payouts were suspended in 2025 to meet CBN capital requirements . Analysts rate the stock a "Buy" with a 12-month target of ₦57.26 — already well below the current price, suggesting the rally has outrun consensus. Investors are betting the earnings trajectory, not the old models, better reflects reality. The next test: whether Q2 numbers confirm that the turnaround is durable, not just a one-quarter bounce.