The global oil market is showing clear signs of returning to a surplus as high prices curb consumption and supplies recover. [3, 8] This reverses the supply deficits seen earlier in the year after the outbreak of the war in Iran. [5, 8] Analysts at major banks point to recovering Middle Eastern oil flows and weakening global demand as key drivers. [1, 5]
JPMorgan estimates the market moved to a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, widening to 1.4 million bpd in October. [6, 7] Goldman Sachs describes the market as more balanced. [1, 6, 10] Global oil inventories did not decline in September or October, supporting the view that the period of tightness has ended. [1, 6, 10]
Crude benchmarks fell by roughly 13% in one week. [12]