Shares of Century Aluminum plunged 6.9% to $28.00 the day after a third-quarter earnings report that managed to grow revenue but disappointed on profitability and spooked investors with a weaker fourth-quarter outlook. The stock is now 60% below its June 2026 all-time high of $70.43, raising a pointed question: is the selloff a buying opportunity ahead of a transformational expansion, or a sign that falling aluminum prices are catching up with the business?
• Revenue Surged, but Profits Didn't Keep Pace
Revenue rose 28% sequentially to $961 million, driven by a 33% increase in shipments following the restart of a major production line in Iceland, but adjusted EBITDA grew only 1.4% to $332 million, as higher operating and energy costs squeezed margins.
The company blamed extreme summer heat for higher electricity prices and weaker power settlement costs. In simple terms, Century shipped far more metal but kept almost none of the extra revenue as profit.
• The Adjusted EPS Miss Is What Matters Most
Adjusted earnings came in at $2.58 per share, up from $2.46 the prior quarter — but below the $2.68 consensus Wall Street expected. For a commodity producer where every dime of margin counts, a $0.10 shortfall signals cost pressures are real, not transient.
• A Softer Q4 Outlook Adds Urgency
Management guided fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to $275–$300 million , implying a 10% to 17% sequential decline from Q3. The culprit: the company expects lagged LME aluminum pricing of $3,150 per ton, down roughly $250 from Q3 realized prices.
LME monthly aluminum already fell from $3,670 in May to $3,061 in October. If prices keep drifting, Q4 could land at the low end of guidance.
• The Oklahoma Smelter Is the Wildcard
Century owns 40% of a joint venture with Emirates Global Aluminium to build a 750,000-tonne-per-year smelter in Inola, Oklahoma — a plant that would more than double total U.S. primary aluminum production.
The company expects to break ground by year-end, with initial production by late 2029. That project could transform Century's earnings power, but it is years away and still awaiting a final investment decision. Meanwhile, the company sits on $713 million in cash , providing a cushion but no guarantee that falling aluminum prices won't erode it before the smelter delivers a single ingot.