Shares of BHP Group slid 4.4% to $81.74 after the mining giant reported quarterly copper production of 491,900 tonnes, missing analyst expectations and prompting a guidance cut for its flagship Chilean operations next year. For a company that has staked its future on copper — the metal essential to electric vehicles, power grids, and AI data centers — the miss raises pointed questions about whether BHP can deliver on its most important growth bet. BHP's Copper Stumble: Can the World's Biggest Miner Keep Its Growth Story Alive?
Shares of BHP Group dropped 4.4% to $81.74 after the miner disclosed a disappointing end to its fiscal year and warned that copper output — now the single most important line in its earnings — will fall sharply next year. For a company that has spent billions pivoting toward the red metal, the update lands at a particularly awkward moment: copper contributed 51% of BHP's underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for the first time ever , meaning any production wobble hits the bottom line harder than it used to.
The Numbers Came In Light, and Next Year Looks Worse
BHP reported a 5% drop in fourth-quarter copper production to 491,900 tonnes, dragged down by weaker output at Escondida and Pampa Norte in Chile.
Full-year copper output totalled 1.95 million tonnes, down 3% but still within guidance. The real shock was the forward look: BHP is bracing for a 7%–15% decline in annual copper production next year, guiding 1.65–1.80 million tonnes, primarily because of lower forecast ore grades at Escondida.
Falling Ore Grades Expose a Structural Problem Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, is getting harder to mine profitably. Lower feed grades reduced concentrate output even as throughput hit records. This is a common challenge at aging open-pit operations: as miners dig deeper, the copper content in each tonne of rock declines, requiring more energy and cost to extract the same metal. BHP is investing $4.4–$5.9 billion in a new processing plant at Escondida to eventually add capacity, but the environmental permit was only submitted in March 2026 — meaning relief is years away.
Copper's Strategic Importance Magnifies the Miss
These headwinds arrive as BHP has placed copper at the centre of its growth strategy, betting on the metal's role in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and AI.
Copper EBITDA rose 59% to $8 billion in the first half of the fiscal year , powered by prices that remain near historic highs — copper traded at $6.34/lb on July 16, still up roughly 16% year-over-year. High prices cushion the blow, but they cannot offset declining volumes forever.
A Leadership Transition Adds Uncertainty
Incoming CEO Brandon Craig is set to succeed Mike Henry in July , inheriting a portfolio that needs heavy capital spending just to hold output steady. With the Anglo American acquisition path now closed — BHP abandoned that bid in late 2025 — organic growth must deliver, and today's numbers suggest it won't be easy.