Shares of BHP Group jumped 4.0% to $92.68 after the world's largest listed miner reported fiscal-year results that cleared Wall Street's bar on both profit and dividends — raising a pointed question about whether copper's ascent can sustain the momentum. BHP's Copper Kingdom: A 30% Profit Surge and Record Dividends Look Great, but How Long Can One Metal Carry the World's Biggest Miner?
Shares surged 4.0% to $92.68, pushing BHP within striking distance of its 52-week high of $93.83, after the mining giant delivered a fiscal year that reshuffled its identity. Underlying attributable profit rose to $13.2 billion from $10.2 billion a year earlier, while underlying EBITDA increased 27% to $32.9 billion. The question now: is this a new earnings plateau — or a copper-price windfall shareholders shouldn't count on repeating?
Copper Overtook Iron Ore for the First Time in BHP's History. The copper segment contributed 54% of group EBITDA with a 70% margin, marking the first time copper has exceeded iron ore's contribution to group earnings.
This was driven by copper production of roughly 1,953 kilotons, up 3% year-over-year, combined with a 35% increase in copper prices during the fiscal year. That concentration is a double-edged sword: it magnifies gains in a copper bull market, but exposes BHP to outsized pain if prices reverse.
Shareholders Are Getting the Biggest Payout in Four Years. Total cash returns to shareholders for the year reached $8.7 billion — $1.72 per share, fully franked — the highest in four years.
The final dividend alone was $0.99 per share at a 72% payout ratio , up sharply from fiscal 2025's final dividend of $0.60 per share at a 60% payout ratio. That generosity signals management confidence, but it also reflects a balance sheet flush with cash — net debt fell to just $8.7 billion, roughly 0.3 times annual EBITDA — leaving room for both dividends and growth spending.
The Growth Plan Banks on Even More Copper. Management outlined a self-funded growth pathway that could lift copper output by 50% by the mid-2030s.
BHP is progressing its next generation of copper mines, notably the Vicuña joint venture with Lundin Mining, which recently received environmental approval for stage one.
Meanwhile, the Jansen potash project remains on track for first production mid-next calendar year , offering diversification if copper falters.
One Risk Worth Watching: Escondida's Declining Ore Grades. Analysts warn FY26's star performer could take a step back in FY27, as Escondida's ore grade falls , before the growth pipeline picks up the slack. With the stock near its 52-week ceiling, investors are effectively betting that copper demand from electrification and data centers will keep prices elevated long enough for BHP's expansion projects to deliver. That's a reasonable bet — but not a riskless one.