Shares of AST SpaceMobile cratered to $42.30, down 10.1% on the day and roughly 30% over the past week, after a punishing analyst downgrade collided with a broader market selloff driven by hotter-than-expected inflation data. The damage raises a pointed question: can a company that depends on SpaceX for rides to orbit survive SpaceX as a direct rival?
• A Former Bull Slashed Its Target Nearly in Half
Piper Sandler downgraded ASTS from Overweight to Neutral and cut its price target from $98 to $54.
Analyst Alexander Potter cut his satellite estimates to just 18 by year-end 2026 and 60 by year-end 2027, down from 45 and 68, respectively.
He now expects U.S. commercial service to begin in the second half of 2027 rather than late 2026, and lowered his estimated monthly service price to $12 from $15 to reflect competition. That pricing haircut alone shrinks the long-term revenue case by 20%.
• The Launch Partner Problem Is Now the Existential Question AST SpaceMobile's biggest vulnerability is structural: "its biggest launch partner is also its most dangerous competitor," and that tension now drives the debate over the stock.
SpaceX's reported $8 billion mobile spectrum purchase could let it limit launch capacity for partners like ASTS, undercut pricing, or introduce its own devices.
Reaching the 45-satellite threshold for continuous coverage would require roughly six more Falcon 9 launches at $74 million each — about $444 million in fees paid directly to the competition.
• Revenue Forecasts Are Drifting Far Below Consensus
Piper now estimates ASTS will generate $155 million in 2026 and $398 million in 2027, well below consensus estimates of $160 million and $690 million. The 2027 gap is enormous — a 42% miss versus the Street — and reflects a scenario where commercial service simply doesn't scale on time. The company reported annual revenue of just $70.9 million , underscoring how dependent its valuation is on future launches.
• Not Everyone Is Selling — But the Burden of Proof Has Shifted
Clear Street reiterated a Buy rating with a $115 target, arguing ASTS holds a roughly six-month technology lead over SpaceX in direct-to-cell.
Bulls point to a $1.3 billion contracted backlog and $3.7 billion in pro forma liquidity. But with the stock now 36% below where it started 2026, investors are being asked to bet that a pre-revenue satellite company can outrun the most prolific launch operator on Earth. That bet just got a lot more expensive.