Analysts expect Adobe to report Q3 non-GAAP earnings of $6.09 per share on revenue of $6.69 billion, while the stock currently trades at $273.92 against an average price target of $273.23. Investors are primarily focused on Net New Annual Recurring Revenue (NNARR) and the company's ability to convert its massive free-tier AI user base into paying subscribers.
Recent sentiment has been pressured by concerns over AI substitution risks and a major leadership transition following the appointment of Anil Chakravarthy as the incoming CEO. While AI-first ARR tripled to over $500 million in the previous quarter, the market remains cautious about the pace of monetization and the competitive threat from AI-native alternatives.