Shares barely moved as Apple debuted its first foldable smartphone — officially named the iPhone Duo — at Wednesday's "Surprise and Shine" event, the first keynote led by new CEO John Ternus. Apple stock ended the day down 0.28%, perhaps reflecting investor skepticism about how many consumers will pay up for the expensive new device. With a market cap of $4.6 trillion and a forward price-to-earnings ratio near 36 — well above its three-year average of about 30 — the question isn't whether the Duo is impressive. It's whether it can move the needle.
A $2,000 Price Tag That Undercut Expectations
Analysts expected $2,500. Samsung sells its competing Z Fold8 Ultra at $2,099. Apple arrived last and priced below the incumbent.
The iPhone Duo starts at $1,999 and goes on sale Oct. 23.
Analyst Gene Munster doubled his estimate for the Duo's fiscal 2027 share of iPhone revenue from 5% to 10%. That aggressive pricing signals Apple is chasing volume in a category that still accounts for less than 2% of overall smartphone shipments — a bet that scale matters more than per-unit profit.
The New CEO Is a Hardware Engineer, and It Shows
Ternus's appointment marked a shift from Cook's operations-focused leadership to a CEO with roots in product development and engineering. He took the stage nine days into the job. Apple raised the iPhone 18 Pro's starting price by $100 to $1,199 and the Pro Max to $1,299 , while older models still available from Apple also jumped $100. Across-the-board price increases cushion rising memory costs but test consumer loyalty heading into the holiday quarter.
iPhone Revenue Is Soaring — But Growth Is Set to Slow
iPhone revenue last quarter was $54.3 billion, up 22% year over year , and total sales of $109.4 billion surpassed consensus. But growth rates are projected to slow significantly, with consensus fourth-quarter revenue expansion at about 12%, dropping into the single digits for most of next year. The Duo needs to extend the upgrade cycle that powered 2026's surge — not just generate headlines.
Foldables Are Small, but Apple Wants a Big Slice
Counterpoint Research forecasts Apple will capture 25% of foldable market share in its first year , while global foldable shipments are expected to grow 21% in 2026. The foldable market is worth roughly $38.7 billion in 2026 — meaningful but a fraction of Apple's $250 billion-plus annual iPhone business. Investors betting on a foldable-driven rally need to see this category become a gateway to higher average selling prices across the entire lineup, not a curiosity with thin margins.