Shares of CXMT Corporation plunged 7.8% to CNY 41.52 on October 19, marking the stock's steepest single-day drop in months after the company's nine-month profit forecast revealed that sequential earnings growth in Q3 slowed dramatically. The selloff erased roughly two weeks of gains and raises a pointed question: has the DRAM pricing cycle that fueled CXMT's turnaround already crested? CXMT's Blockbuster Profit Turnaround Fails to Impress — Has the DRAM Boom Already Hit Its Ceiling?
Shares of ChangXin Memory Technologies cratered 7.8% to CNY 41.52 on Monday, their lowest since the July debut, even as the company unveiled a staggering swing from a CNY 5.28 billion loss to a projected CNY 131–132.5 billion profit for the first nine months of 2026. Investors drove the stock to its lowest since the July 27 IPO as elevated expectations for AI-linked names collided with fears of a future supply glut.
• The Big Number Hides a Troubling Trend
Quarter-on-quarter profit expansion collapsed to roughly 1–4% in Q3 after surging 113% in Q2 and 246% in Q1 — a trajectory that raised serious questions about whether the DRAM upcycle had peaked. The math is simple: CXMT posted first-half net income of CNY 77.61 billion , meaning Q3 added only about CNY 53–55 billion — essentially flat versus Q2's implied run rate. For a stock that debuted with a 466% first-day pop, investors need acceleration, not stall speed.
• DRAM Prices Are Still Rising, but the Gains Are Shrinking Fast
Conventional DRAM contract price increases were 90–95% quarter-over-quarter at the start of 2026, then 58–63%, then 13–18%, and now 10–15%. That is a curve flattening at a high level, not turning down — yet for CXMT, which sells commodity DRAM rather than premium AI memory like high-bandwidth memory (HBM), slower price gains translate almost directly into slower profit growth. CXMT's global DRAM revenue share reached 10% in Q2 2026, up from 4% a year earlier, as it competes with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.
• A Buyback Couldn't Stop the Bleeding
CXMT's chairman proposed a share buyback of CNY 1–2 billion — a gesture that proved insufficient to stem the selling.
Profit-taking from investors who accumulated large gains since the IPO added pressure, compounded by weakness in overseas memory giants whose shares had already fallen sharply. A buyback worth less than 0.1% of the company's market capitalization reads more as symbolic reassurance than meaningful support.
• The Wider Chip Selloff Magnified the Pain
Broader market jitters saw Korea's KOSPI fall 3.2%, with Samsung and SK Hynix dropping over 4%.
The sequential decline left CXMT vulnerable to broader concerns over slowing AI spending on chips — a sector-wide headwind that turned a company-specific disappointment into a rout. Analysts still carry a mean target of CNY 78.32, implying nearly 89% upside — consensus remains "Outperform" across 12 analysts — but Monday's price action shows the market is no longer willing to pay for yesterday's growth rate.